Every time I write a column, I always want to be optimistic. Optimism is a human condition. That’s where we all want to be. You will see some January numbers that seem to indicate that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Now, there is nothing I would like more than to tell you that things are looking up and 2005 is here again. We are not there yet.
Remember the old saying that “liars figure and numbers lie.” For example, what the federal government and the National Association of Realtors do not include in their reports is “shadow inventory.” This means literally hundreds of thousands of foreclosed homes that have yet to be re-registered. Believe it or not, lenders don’t always market them right away.
. Another major omission from the statistics is “expired and terminated listings,” where owners have removed their listings in the hope of listing again when the market improves. Therefore, Plano’s home inventory and days on market statistics are skewed and look better than they really are. See below.
We all know that the real estate market has been in the toilet for the last few years and no one is buying. It is difficult to buy a house when you have no money and no one offers you credit. Having said that, it should be noted that North Central Texas has fallen the least (although Collin County had the largest increase in foreclosures last month over Denton and Dallas counties). The stats for Prosper Houses, McKinney Houses, and Frisco Houses are similar to Plano Houses. We know that the markets that best withstand a recession are usually the first to recover. So eventually Plano can lead the way.
The domestic market is usually cyclical and history tells us that it is usually 3-4 years. We know that half of California and Michigan would move to Texas if they could sell their current homes. And many will. Additionally, there are plenty of buyers sitting on the sidelines looking for further declines in home prices. So, we know there’s a lot of pent up demand out there. When demand finally outstrips supply, we’ll be on the upside.
What this all means for Planons if you’re thinking of selling…wait and if you’re thinking of buying proceed with caution and bargain hard. For more information, visit http://billremington.com
The truth is that no one will be able to forecast the bottom. We will only know this in hindsight as we begin to recover. As they say on Fox News, “We report…you decide.” Here are the January stats for Plano homes in Texas:
New listings… 379 down from 503 (-25%) in 08′
Sales closed…141 down from 219 (-36%) in 08′
Median Sales Prices…$234k down from $250k (-9%) in 08′
% asked vs. sale price 92% down 1.3% in 08′
Average days on the market… 98 down from 112 (-12%) in 08′
Plano Home Inventory… 988 down from 1499 (-34%) in 08′
